Maize: The USDA left the 2023/24 South American production estimates unchanged as shown by the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. CBOT corn prices decreased by approximately 30% year-on-year increasing
U.S. farmer’s reluctance to sell corn and presenting some price support. Strong U.S crop rating however capped gains, as a result, CBOT corn prices traded sideways month-on-month on June 12. As the 2023/24 local maize season nears completion, production declines of about 19% for the total maize crop continue to present price support. SAFEX maize prices are expected to trade sideways at the current highs over the next few months, trading around the R4000 per ton mark for YMAZ and the R5 000 per ton mark for white maize.

Wheat: Russia declared an agricultural emergency aimed at addressing frost induced crop losses in May. The USDA cut Russia’s 2024/25 wheat harvest forecast by 6% to 83 million tons, marking the lowest projected production in three years. Conversely, the U.S. wheat production estimate increased by 1,0% to a five-year high of 51 million tons. CBOT wheat prices decreased as worries about lower global export demand offset worries about the shrinking Russian wheat crop. SAFEX wheat prices followed an increasing price trend from the beginning of May, reaching highs of R6 760 per ton at the end of May before losing momentum on the back of improved local production sentiments as well as lower global wheat prices.

Oilseeds: CBOT soybeans extended their downward trend, decreasing by 4,1% month-on-month on the back of smaller than expected reductions to Brazilian soybean crop following flooding last month. Prices were further weighed by low U.S. soybean export demand coupled with ample global supplies. SAFEX soybean prices increased by 3,0% compared to a week ago supported by decreased production
forecasts. Sunflower seed prices increased by 1,3% month-on-month due to higher global sunflower seed prices.

Source: Agri Trends